Claude Code is the Inflection Point

4% of GitHub public commits are being authored by Claude Code right now. At the current trajectory, we believe that Claude Code will be 20%+ of all daily commits by the end of 2026. While you blinked, AI consumed all of software development.

Our sister publication Fabricated Knowledge described software like linear TV during the rise of the internet and thinks that the rise of Claude Code is going to be a new layer of intelligence on top of software akin to DRAM versus NAND. Today SemiAnalysis is going to dive into the repercussions of Claude Code, what it is, and why Claude is so good.

We believe that Claude Code is the inflection point for AI “Agents” and is a glimpse into the future of how AI will function. It is set to drive exceptional revenue growth for Anthropic in 2026, enabling the lab to dramatically outgrow OpenAI.

We built a detailed economic model of Anthropic and precisely quantified revenue and capex implications for its cloud partners AWS, Google Cloud, Azure, as well as associated supply chains such as Trainium2/3, TPUs and GPUs. This is the core purpose of the Tokenomics model.

Anthropic is on track to add as much power as OpenAI in the next three years. Refer to our Datacenter Industry Model for a building-by-building tracker of Anthropic and OpenAI. Sam’s AI lab is notably suffering from mutliple data center delays, which we’ve called out months ahead of the headlines, most notably in our Coreweave Q3’2025 earnings preview where we explicitly called out a large CapEx guidance miss.

Since more compute means more revenue, we can forecast ARR growth and compare Anthropic to OpenAI directly.

Notably, our forecast shows that Anthropic’s quarterly ARR additions have overtaken OpenAI’s. Anthropic is adding more revenue every month than OpenAI. We believe Anthropic’s growth will be constrained by compute.

Let’s dig deeper into Anthropic’s Crown jewel: Claude Code.

Claude Code and the Agentic Future

Agents will be the primary method of how organic intelligence (humans) interact with artificial intelligence (AI). But Claude Code also is also a demonstration of the reverse: showing how agents interact with humans.

We believe the future of AI will be about the orchestration of tokens, not just selling tokens at base cost. With history as a guide,