The Biggest Under-Reported Story of 2025
Deep Dives
Explore related topics with these Wikipedia articles, rewritten for enjoyable reading:
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Lend-Lease
14 min read
The article discusses how allied support (or lack thereof) can transform a war's outcome. The WWII Lend-Lease program is the historical precedent for how external manufacturing capacity can decisively shift military balance—exactly what the author warns China could do for Russia
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Modernization of the People's Liberation Army
15 min read
The article's central claim is that China's manufacturing capacity could 'overwhelm Ukraine' and 'kit out the Russian army for years.' Understanding the actual scale and capabilities of China's defense industry provides crucial context for evaluating this assessment
Do you want to know what the biggest under-reported story of the year is in the Russo-Ukraine War? Its actually easy to pinpoint if one wants to be honest, but at the same time it is deeply uncomfortable to discuss for those states who say they support Ukraine. And that story is that Russia’s allies, most ominously China (the largest producer of military weaponry in the world) are piling in with support for Russia while Ukraine’s allies too often dither (or in the case of the USA, basically cease giving Ukraine aid altogether).
China has always possessed the innate economic, productive ability to transform the Russo-Ukraine War. China can make weaponry or much needed economic goods for Russia at a scale that Russia could not hope to match and which could overwhelm Ukraine. The first piece I wrote specifically about this appeared in February 2023, not long after this Substack was launched. In that piece I tried to warn people about China’s potential ability to transform the course of this war.
Here is a brief excerpt from it.
That is why the Chinese decision to intervene for Russia with production and supplies (were it to happen) could change the character and certainly the duration of the Russo-Ukraine war. Chinese manufacturing is a whole different beast from Russia’s and if Beijing decided to really turn on the taps, they could supply a wide range of weapons and supplies that could kit out the Russian army for years. It makes a long-war possible.
Now, under the Biden Administration, the Chinese always supported the Russians, but were careful to keep that support within boundaries—which makes the developments since Donald Trump has become president much more ominous. While Trump has slashed US support for Ukraine, he has also empowered other states, particularly the Chinese, to dramatically increase their support for Russia.
This excerpt is provided for preview purposes. Full article content is available on the original publication.