AI Just Entered Its Manhattan Project Era

As promised, I bring you my take on what’s going on between Anthropic, OpenAI, and the Department of Defense. Plenty of people have written about the specific details of the deals and the current situation, so I’ve chosen a different focus. As a European watching the events unfold from the other side of the pond, I hope to compensate for what I lose in distance with what I gain in perspective. I have divided this post into three acts.

• Act 1: What happened so far. A quick timeline of all the relevant events. Go over to act 2 if you already know all this.

• Act 2: What I think will happen next in the short term (e.g., what will be of Anthropic as a company), and why the outcome doesn’t matter much.

• Act 3: What happens when AI is no longer just **a technological matter.

ACT 1: WHAT HAPPENED SO FAR

Here’s a quick timeline of the relevant events.

July 2025. Anthropic signs a $200 million contract with the Pentagon and becomes the first AI lab deployed on the Department of Defense’s classified network. The contract includes two restrictions: Anthropic’s AI cannot be used for mass surveillance of American citizens or for fully autonomous weapons that select and engage targets without human oversight.

January 2026. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth issues an AI strategy memo directing that all Department of Defense AI contracts incorporate standard “any lawful use” language within 180 days, a direct collision with Anthropic’s restrictions. Negotiations begin.

February 2026.

Monday, 16. Axios reports the Pentagon is considering designating Anthropic a “supply chain risk to national security”—a classification previously reserved for foreign adversaries like Huawei—and invoking the Defense Production Act (DPA) if Anthropic doesn’t remove its restrictions. A senior defense official says they’re “going to make sure they pay a price.”

Tuesday 24. Hegseth and Dario meet. CNN says the “tone was cordial and respectful” and that Hegseth “praised Anthropic’s products.” Axios says the meeting was “tense.” Whatever the case, Amodei reiterated his red lines and Hegseth set a deadline: 5:01 PM ET Friday 27 to agree to “all lawful purposes” or the contract gets canceled and Anthropic gets designated a supply chain risk.

Thursday 26. Amodei publishes a statement: “We cannot in good conscience accede to their request.” Emil Michael, the Pentagon’s Undersecretary for Research and Engineering, publicly calls Amodei “a liar” with “a God-complex.” More than