The ICE shootings are a tipping point

Note: I wrote this article the morning of Monday, Jan. 26, before news broke that Greg Bovino is being fired as “commander at large” of U.S. border control (the White House disputes the reporting), and that Kristi Noem and Corey Lewandowski could be next. Bovino’s ouster is further evidence that the politics of immigration enforcement are deteriorating quickly for the Trump administration, and that the backlash I describe below is now driving consequences inside the White House. I’m not saying that this is proof of the tipping point I argue we have hit on immigration, but if we had hit a tipping point, these are the consequences we’d probably see.

Immigration was one of the two big issues that helped Donald Trump win the White House in 2024 — the other being inflation. Last November, we saw how anxiety over prices hurt the president’s party in races for statewide offices around the country. Now, immigration has become a liability for the president, too.

The killing by federal agents of two Americans in Minneapolis this month — Renee Good on Jan. 7, 2026, and Alex Pretti on Jan. 24 — has created a backlash to the administration’s policy of mass deportations and “immigration enforcement” that is causing voters (in all parties) to move against the president’s agenda. As a student of public opinion, I see these events as constituting a classic “tipping point” in how voters see immigration — and how they evaluate their leaders on the issue.

In this week’s Deep Dive, I look at how the data on immigration policy is changing rapidly, how that fits in the context of historical tipping points in U.S. policy and polling, the early effects of the killing of Alex Pretti on members of Congress, and the likely path forward.

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I. The numbers are moving against Trump fast

First, consider the trajectory in Donald Trump’s overall approval rating. His net rating — the difference between the percent of Americans who approve ...