Weekend Update #173: Ukraine Liberates Hundreds Of Square Kilometres, What Might It Mean?

Hi All,

More and more it seems that people are understanding the reality of what is happening. Ukraine is not collapsing (first point) and the Trump administration is not “negotiating” a peace deal between the Ukrainians and Russians. For the past 14 months (and longer with the Ukraine collapse narrative) much, I would say most, of the reporting of the war was not based around reality but lies and distortions—many of them deliberate. The collapse narrative has been pushed relentlessly by the analytical community and the Trump administration who were trying to maintain that they both knew what they were talking about when they did not. The negotiations narrative was sadly enabled by a press that was too afraid of Trump to report the truth. And that truth was what we are seeing is an attempt by the US government to force the Ukrainians to give Putin what he wants, and in exchange it seems like bribes are to go to the US. The inability of this to be reported honestly is shameful. Both of these stories will figure in this update.

The final story will be reports that the Ukrainians used a number of FP-5 Flamingo missiles to hit an important Russian strategic factory. That certainly bears watching.

Before I get into these stories, however, I wanted to say that this week will see the fourth anniversary of the Russian full scale invasion. Launched on February 24, 2022, this invasion has reshaped the world in which we live, though of course its impact in Ukraine has been the deepest. To mark this moment and discuss the course of the war, I will hold a Substack live this week with Andriy Zagorodnyuk. Andriy was President Zelensky’s first Defense Secretary and works now at the intersection of Ukrainian defense industry and grand strategy. He did this interview on the Substack back in June and writes regularly for outlets such as Foreign Affairs. He is as astute and learned a commentator on the war as one can hope to find.

I have taken the earlier interview out of paywall for anyone to read in preparation for our talk. Enjoy.

I cannot give the exact day/time yet for the Substack Live yet as the situation in Ukraine power-wise is uneven. So pay attention. I will give people as much notice as I can.

Now, on to the update.

Ukraine