Why the US fears a Taiwan war in 2027

TAIWAN HAS 5 YEARS TO PREPARE for a Chinese invasion if—a big if—U.S. fears prove true that Beijing may abandon its goal of “peaceful reunification” in 2027 and seize the island democracy of 23 million by force.

That’s been the hypothetical D-Day for a while, thanks to Navy Adm. Phil Davidson, who told the Senate last year that China’s ambitions are accelerating and “the threat is manifest during this decade” of a potential Taiwan play. “In fact, in the next six years.”

Add CIA Deputy Director David Cohen as another voice: He says Chinese President Xi Jinping has ordered his military “to have the capability to take control of Taiwan by force by 2027,” CNN reported, though Langley still thinks Xi wants to “get control through nonmilitary means.”

President Joe Biden has said four times now that the United States will defend Taiwan from attack—Chinese protests and “strategic ambiguity” be damned—so the question now is what is being done to deter it?

It’s unclear whether China will invade Taiwan in 2027, 2049, or ever. But the U.S. undoubtedly prefers the status quo. An autonomous Taiwan and free-flowing Taiwan Strait are better for global stability.

Nevertheless, military planners must prepare for crises anyway. And while five years seems distant, U.S. weapons being used now to defend Ukraine are needed to bolster Taiwan—but US stockpiles have dwindled and will take years to rebuild.

Unlike Ukraine—with porous borders ripe for foreign weapons shipments and aid—Taiwan will be “very hard to arm” during a conflict, says Blake Herzinger, a Pacific security expert. The island sits about 100 miles east of China and is within range of its missiles—along with U.S. forces that would presumably respond from Japan and elsewhere in Asia.

“Self-propelled artillery and mobile cruise missile launchers are the types of equipment Taiwan should prioritize but has yet to incorporate into its defense forces,” Herzinger wrote recently in Foreign Policy.

Taiwan also needs a “large number of small things,” says retired Adm. Lee Hsi-min, former chief of the Taiwan General Staff from 2017 to 2019 and planner of the island’s defense. These things include intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems and counter-ISR; small precision weapons that can be concealed from missile attack; anti-air weapons to keep aircraft at bay; and other munitions that can inflict massive pain on invaders close to shore.

“If we want to ...