A Transforming World Order
Deep Dives
Explore related topics with these Wikipedia articles, rewritten for enjoyable reading:
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United States–Taliban deal
10 min read
The article directly references the Doha Accord as a precedent for the current Ukraine negotiations. Understanding the specifics of this agreement—its terms, the exclusion of the Afghan government, and its consequences—provides essential context for evaluating the parallels the author draws.
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Taiwan–United States relations
14 min read
The article highlights Taiwan as a key case study for nations relying on American security guarantees without formal treaty alliance. The complex history of US-Taiwan relations, including strategic ambiguity and the Taiwan Relations Act, provides crucial background for understanding Taiwan's current security calculus.
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ANZUS
12 min read
The article discusses Australia's alliance commitments and the need to reassess expectations of American support. ANZUS is the foundational security treaty between Australia, New Zealand, and the United States, and understanding its terms and historical evolution is essential for readers evaluating the author's arguments about alliance reliability.
Over the past week, my team has made tremendous progress with respect to ending the War between Russia and Ukraine. President Trump, social media post, 25 November 2025.
Over the past week, the new attempt to reach a war termination agreement has played out in Moscow, Kyiv, Washington DC, Geneva and elsewhere. While the original 28-point plan basically calls for Ukraine to surrender its sovereignty and ability to defend itself, the manner in which Trump administration representatives came up with the plan and sought to impose in on Ukraine has many lessons. In my latest piece for the Lowy Interpreter, I explore the implications for the Pacific region of this past few days of the latest Ukraine peace process.
The past week’s events surrounding the new Russian-American plan to end the war in Ukraine provide an opportunity for America’s friends, allies and adversaries to reflect and learn about how much the US view of its role in the world has changed. The dedication of previous American administrations to preserving a world where the strong did not prey on the weak, and where changing borders by force was deterred by democracies with the Leader of the Free World at the forefront, is in its twilight.
During the first Trump administration, the United States conducted secret talks with the Taliban to end the Afghanistan war. The deal was negotiated without input from the Afghan government at the time. The final deal, known as the Doha Accord, had its ultimate manifestation in the humiliating, chaotic and tragic evacuation of troops and civilians in late August 2021. While blame was laid at the feet of the Biden administration, the foundations were cast by Trump.
Now, with the Russian-American 28-point peace plan for Ukraine, there is a similar demonstration of perfidious behaviour by Trump’s representatives to secretly negotiate a war termination deal with an enemy behind the backs of friends and allies. The demonstrated behaviour of Trump in two different administrations towards two different wars provides insights into how the Trump administration thinks about its relationships with foreign nations.
How might the Australian national security community apply this knowledge as Ukraine navigates its extraordinarily difficult position?
First, American allies will be disheartened by the Trump administration’s posture towards Ukraine and its willingness to absolve Russia of all its heinous behaviour. America appears to have eschewed any notion of a values-based approach to dealing
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