Hidden Open Thread 406.5

Deep Dives

Explore related topics with these Wikipedia articles, rewritten for enjoyable reading:

• Prediction market 15 min read

  ACX frequently discusses prediction markets and forecasting; readers would benefit from understanding their mechanics, accuracy research, and historical applications

• Bayesian inference 19 min read

  Core concept in rationalist thinking that underpins much of Scott Alexander's analytical approach; foundational for understanding epistemic updates

• The Good Judgment Project 12 min read

  Philip Tetlock's research on expert prediction is frequently referenced in ACX discussions about forecasting accuracy and epistemic humility