Farewell, Alexander Lukashenko? (Round 2)

Belarusian strongman Alexander Lukashenko appears to be signaling his intent to step aside. On August 12^th, Lukashenko proposed amending the country's Criminal Code to punish violence and threats against current and former presidents. Russia’s state-run TASS also reported Lukashenko’s interview with Rossiya-1 TV, where he explicitly said he was preparing to step down.

Lukashenko had an eventful week, warning that nearly a third of Belarusian troops were deployed on the border with Ukraine, perhaps to draw Kyiv’s attention and resources away from the Kursk offensive. Lukashenko also called for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine – something he has done since virtually the beginning of the conflict in 2014.  

I don’t have much to add on Belarus’ domestic political machinations. I’m certainly not a Belarus hand (friendly reminder to new and newish subscribers: I don’t read/speak Russian). Nor is it clear if Moscow is pressuring Lukashenko to step aside: Putin has often pondered annexing Belarus, and it’s possible that he might seek to absorb Belarus as a “consolation prize” if he fails to subdue Ukraine. At the same time, Lukashenko is about to turn 70 and may be facing genuine health problems. As always, multiple things can be true at the same time.

It isn’t clear how Beijing regards these developments, but it’s worth revisiting one of the more striking episodes in PRC-Belarus relations.

Long-time readers may remember a January 31, 2022, article that focused on China’s posture towards Belarus. In early 2022, the Chinese Embassy in Russia began including Belarus-related updates in its Russia “related news” section. Below, you can see the screenshot from January 31, 2022:

Source: Chinese Foreign Ministry via China’s Embassy in Moscow; Author’s Contemporaneous Screenshot on January 30, 2022

The two highlighted articles from January 2022 included calls between Xi Jinping and Lukashenko, including one for the 30^th anniversary of PRC-Belarus relations.

Including Belarus-related updates on the webpage of the MFA’s embassy in Moscow was striking in early 2022, not least because Russian and Belarusian forces were conducting joint drills amid the Beijing Olympics. It wasn’t clear what, if anything, Beijing was signaling about Belarus.

At some point – the timing isn’t clear – the MFA erased the Xi-Lukashenko phone calls from the PRC’s Embassy in Moscow. The same website (Russia Related News, or 俄罗斯 > 相关新闻) now doesn’t include a reference to Belarus during the same time period, although the