Six data-driven reasons Texas could actually go blue in 2026

Democrats haven’t won a statewide race in Texas since 1994. But every cycle, we are inundated with pieces asking if this will be the year Texas turns blue. The answer, for 32 years, has been no. I wrote my own version for The Economist back in 2019, calling the state Democrats’ “white whale” for 2020. From 2020 to 2024, the state only drifted further toward Republicans, who win the state on average by 12 percentage points.

But this year, Democrats might have a real shot at winning a statewide election in the Lone Star State.

On Tuesday, March 3, Democratic primary voters picked state House Rep. James Talarico over U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett to become their party’s nominee for the November election to the U.S. Senate. On the Republican side, no candidate won above 50%, so incumbent John Cornyn and Ken Paxton are headed to a May 26th runoff election.

I have compiled six data-driven reasons Texas could actually go blue in 2026. They have to do with concerns over Ken Paxton’s electability, Talarico’s support among independent voters, Democratic enthusiasm, and a few other factors. Add them up, and it’s easy to see how Talarico could pull off a win (though it would not be easy to do).

Here are six data-driven reasons Texas could actually go blue in 2026.

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1. Ken Paxton’s electability problems could be decisive

The most important question remaining in this race is whether Republican primary voters pick Ken Paxton or John Cornyn as their nominee for the seat. Paxton would be a much weaker candidate than Cornyn, according to polls.

Paxton has been dogged by scandal after scandal for over a decade. He was indicted on felony securities fraud charges in 2015 for persuading investors to buy stock in a tech company without disclosing he was being paid for it. The case dragged on for nine years before prosecutors dropped the charges in 2024 in exchange for community service, ethics courses, ...