China Has The Whip-Hand In The War
Deep Dives
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Hi All,
The war has (once again) proved the basic fact that most wars are won through the access to production and logistics, or lost through the lack of access to production or logistics in many cases. Both the Russian and Ukrainian militaries of 2022, for instance are long gone structurally and equipment wise. In some ways they have been de-created and re-created numerous times. They were both very different armies in 2023 than 2022 and very different again in 2025 compared to 2023.
Btw, this process is one that I highlighted throughout my recently published book War and Power: Who Wins Wars and Why. Instead of repeating the arguments here, I will include an excerpt from the start of chapter 9 at the bottom of this piece so you can see how it was addressed in the book. If you want to see more of the book, here is a link to the US version, and a link to the UK/European one.
This discussion of the massive changes in their construction during the last two years has focused, not without reason, on the explosive growth of UAVs on both sides. From small yet effective battlefield FPV drones, to long-distance and strategic UAVs such as the Russian Shahed/Garan and the Ukrainian FP-1, drones are everywhere in mass. Yet, at the start of the war neither Ukraine nor Russia had what could be termed mass UAV production industries. I am not even sure Ukraine made a military drone in 2021.
Now, however, both sides are making millions and millions of drones and they are shaping much of the fighting from the battlefield to the home front. Long-range drones are ubiquitous in the Russian campaigns against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, and likewise are the most effective weapon Ukraine has in large numbers in their campaign against Russian oil production and military manufacturing. Meanwhile, small FPV drones are the constant on the battlefields.
I am sure that this reality will not be a surprise to readers of this Substack.
The growth of the voracious hunger for UAVs on both sides, however, highlights one of the massive strategic advantages that China has in the world today (not just in determining the Russo-Ukraine War). Both Russian and Ukrainian UAV production is still massively dependent on Chinese supplies of
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