November Digest | Part 2 — International Relations

1. US-China:

   1. Huang Jing on what would be traded in a theoretical Sino-US “Grand Bargain”.

   2. Ronnie Chan on the end of global capital expansion and China’s resilience in a world of systemic tightening.

   3. Jin Canrong on the motivations for US intervention in Venezuela and the (non-)implications for its Indo-Pacific strategy.

2. Europe:

   1. Wang Wanying, Li Zhengdong & Ma Xiaolin on the threat posed by the EU’s enlargement policy to China’s Central and Eastern Europe strategy.

   2. Li Xing on European reliance on US security structures and the politically useful myth of strategic autonomy.

   3. Wang Wanying & Ma Xiaolin on the EU’s shift from rights-based idealism to camp-based alignment with the US in its new digital policy.

   4. Ding Chun: (i) on the continued attraction of China’s market and industrial ecosystem for European industrialists; and (ii) on why EU disengagement with China on trade could deepen its innovation crisis.

   5. Gao Jian on what international human rights research says about the “weaponisation” of UK China scholarship.

3. Japan:

   1. Cao Xin on China’s invocation of the UN Charter’s “enemy state clauses” and Japan’s contestation of them.

   2. Lian Degui on Beijing’s tougher Taiwan stance, pressure on Japan’s right wing and targeted non-inflammatory countermeasures.

   3. Wu Xinbo on how wide-ranging diplomatic coalition building could be China’s route to isolating Japan.

   4. Zheng Yongnian on Japan’s “semi-sovereignty” and its pursuit of sovereign normalisation through military build-up.

4. Africa:

   1. Liu Qiang on maintaining China’s commitment to non-interference amid systemic risk to its investment projects in Africa.

   2. Wang Jinjie on leveraging AI to carry out “cross-cultural leadership” in Africa, rather than relying purely on capital inputs.

5. Russia:

   1. Wang Yongzhong on using central bank digital currencies to improve connectivity in Sino-Russian trade (and, potentially, throughout Asia).

1. US-China Relations

Huang Jing (黄靖): With Busan signifying a gradual reversal of relative power and credibility in the Sino-US relationship, three theoretical pillars for a Sino-US “Grand Bargain” are coming into view. 1) Financially, the US requires a stable absorber of US Treasuries, while China needs to expand RMB global convertibility — potentially allowing the construction of a new system where the RMB plays a secondary international settlement role within a dollar-anchored system. 2) Militarily, the unavoidable (but only partial) retrenchment of US forces in the Indo-Pacific creates incentives to redefine a modus operandi for ...