The End of the West: Europe's Declaration of Independence

At the Davos World Economic Forum this week the world learned a lesson about historical ruptures, the end of empires and civilizational collapse. Most ignored the lesson to pontificate with the usual huff and puff. Too many missed the signal by being distracted by the resentful noise of another flailing USA President. But I have been writing about the real lesson for Europe during my world history tour in 2025 and writing over the last five years. Here is my read of the signal.

On my YouTube Channels this weekend you can now watch

• The final two episodes in my series on the Monroe Doctrine and USA empire, Monroe Doctrine Goes Global in the Cold War | Part Three and Monroe Doctrine Goes Rogue After Cold War | Part Four

• Why I prefer real voiceovers to AI

Please share, like and comment, especially since the algorithm is being skewed by abuse from Jiang Xueqin’s supporters following my critique of his so-called ‘predictive history’.

Ruptures That Do Not End Empires

Large empires, or, in a modern euphemism, civilization states, sometimes break apart. They rarely collapse. They commonly crumble, but rarely without attempts at restoration. Frequently, they branch off like a fern. After the rupture, each fractal state makes it way anew, infused with new genes and tempered by other circumstances.

This fractal branching occurs because empires, or civilization states, are rarely cohesive. Their rival statelets, power elites and cultural waves form uneasy partnerships. Divorce is always a more likely prospect than marriage unto death. Separation is always a more appealing choice than accelerating into the burning apocalypse of civilizational erasure imagined by some mad emperor.

This pattern occurred in the archetypal European empire, Rome. Despite millennia of historical speculation on the fall of Rome, there is no agreement on the causes. Disagreement persists on when the Roman empire ended. Rome was not built in a day, nor did it collapse in a year. 235 CE is a turning point of decline. Constantine the Great divided East and West in 337. Disasters befell Rome in 410, 455, or 476. In that latter year, Odoacer, the Gothic ‘barbarian’ from some unidentified place in Central or Eastern Europe, deposed the continuous line of Western Roman emperors. But the Eastern Roman Empire continued till 1453, and the Holy Roman Empire revived a bloodline of sovereignty to