Peace Negotiations Stumble On, Putin Lays Down a Marker, and the Fall of Yermak: The Big Five, 30 November edition
Deep Dives
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Peace negotiations in the Russo-Ukrainian war (2022–present)
17 min read
Putin's reference to a 'draft peace agreement' that could 'form the basis for future agreements' directly alludes to the 2022 Istanbul negotiations. Understanding what was actually on the table then—and why talks collapsed—illuminates current negotiation dynamics and Putin's strategic positioning.
Isolationists in Washington may try to use Yermak’s resignation as an excuse to ditch Ukraine, citing it as evidence of endemic corruption. In truth, his ouster is evidence of resiliency and maturity that should hearten the Trump administration. Washington Post editorial, 29 November 2025.
This week, Russia’s president Putin reminded us during a press conference that his objectives for the war in Ukraine have not changed. While he was open to negotiations, he did not feel any rush to do so and he again described the Ukrainian government as not the legitimate interlocutor for such talks. In Ukraine, President Zelenskyy’s closest adviser and head of the Office of the President resigned/was sacked, although this is unlikely to suppress calls for more scalps in the ongoing corruption scandal.
In the past week, we have also observed the bungling, disconnected approach to peace talks and peace plans from Trump’s representatives. It has demonstrated again why real estate developers probably should not be allowed anywhere near international diplomacy (unless the desired outcome is a mega real estate deal, of course and not peace).
Welcome to my weekly update on modern war and strategic competition.
Ukraine
Putin’s Press Conference. This week, the Russian president conducted a media question and answer session. It is worth exploring this at the start of the update on Ukraine because it provides context for everything that follows. Bottom line up front: Putin has not changed his main objective for the war, which is the subjugation of Ukraine. No business deal with Trump and his representatives (which was reported on by the Wall Street Journal this week) is going to change that.
Key points from Putin’s media appearance were as follows:
On the draft peace agreement: “In general, we agree that this could form the basis for future agreements. However, it would be inappropriate for me to speak now of any final versions, as these do not exist…Certain matters are of a fundamental nature, and overall, we observe that the American side is, in some respects, taking our position into account.”
On Europe: “Russia does not intend to attack Europe. To us, that sounds ridiculous, does it not? We never had any such intentions. But if they want to have it formalised, let’s do it, no problem...Perhaps there is even merit in this, considering that we all wish
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