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The 1.5°C Threshold Crossed | December 2025

In January 2025, the World Meteorological Organization confirmed what independent analyses from NASA, NOAA, Berkeley Earth, and Copernicus had all concluded: 2024 was the hottest year in human history—and the first to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The last 10 years are the 10 hottest on record, likely the hottest in 125,000 years. COP30 in Belém, Brazil (November 2025) struggled to address the accelerating crisis.

The Temperature Record

2024: Historic Breach

NASA confirmed 2024 as the warmest year since records began in 1850, with temperatures 1.29°C (2.32°F) above the 20th-century average and 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels. For more than half the year, average temperatures exceeded 1.5°C above baseline. The primary driver: accumulated greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels.

2025: Continuing the Trend

Carbon Brief reports 2025 is tracking as the second or third warmest year on record. Through November, global surface temperature was only 0.01°C below record-setting 2024. The first six months of 2025 were extremely warm despite moderate La Niña conditions, which typically suppress global temperatures.

The WMO expects the 2023-2025 three-year average will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time.

COP30 Belém: The Biodiversity-Climate Nexus

COP30 convened in Belém, Brazil (November 10-21, 2025)—the first climate summit in the Amazon. Key outcomes:

The symbolic weight was unmistakable: world leaders negotiating climate action with the burning Amazon visible on the horizon.

The Emissions Gap

The UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025 delivers sobering findings:

The State of Climate Action 2025 from the World Resources Institute is blunt: "Global efforts to reduce emissions are failing at the pace and scale needed."

IPCC Seventh Assessment

The IPCC is preparing its Seventh Assessment Report (AR7). During its February 2025 plenary session in Hangzhou, the panel agreed on outlines for the three Working Group contributions. At the October 2025 session in Lima, they finalized content for the 2027 Methodology Report on Carbon Dioxide Removal Technologies. The Synthesis Report is expected by late 2029.

Carbon Removal at Scale

Direct Air Capture

Climeworks and Occidental are scaling DAC technology. Current costs: $600-1,000 per ton of CO2 removed. Projections suggest $200-300/ton by 2030 at scale. Occidental's Stratos facility in Texas targets 500,000 tons annually—the largest DAC plant to date.

Enhanced Weathering

Spreading crusite minerals on croplands absorbs CO2 as they dissolve. Low-tech, slow, but potentially massive scale. Frontier Climate and Stripe fund pilots through advanced market commitments.

Where to Find Climate Data

NASA Resources

NOAA Resources

International Resources

Why Climate Science Must Be Open

Global scope. Climate doesn't respect borders. A temperature record from Antarctica matters to researchers in Norway. International collaboration requires international data sharing.

Public funding. Most climate research is government-funded. Taxpayers paid for it; taxpayers can access it.

Verification needs. Climate science faces organized denial. Open data and methods allow anyone to check the work—and confirms the science holds up.

The result: the most openly accessible body of science affecting public policy. Anyone can download the same temperature records that inform IPCC reports. Anyone can trace how we know we've crossed 1.5°C. The science is available to all.