Brexit Hangover: Britain Faces Political Splintering and Rising Social Fears

In today’s episode of Critical Conditions, Claire and I dug into the mood on the ground here in the UK — a country still visibly living with the aftershocks of Brexit, increasingly anxious about immigration, and politically splintering in every possible direction. I used to live here and I’m in London this week. There is a festive Christmas mood but I identify something subdued.

London is still festive for the holiday and still wonderful in an almost otherworldly way — but most people I speak with — journalists, policy people, friends, “ordinary” Londoners — agree that Brexit was a serious mistake. Even some of the newspapers that once pushed hardest for it are now saying so openly. And yet, reversing course is politically fraught. Labour may privately wish to inch Britain back toward Europe, starting with a customs-union arrangement, but doing so risks antagonizing parts of its northern base, where Brexit sentiment remains culturally sticky.

The deeper story, though, is anxiety. A surprising number of people — including some who would never say so publicly — believe the country is heading toward social fracture. The fears cluster around immigration and the rise of political Islam, but the emotional charge often far exceeds the actual numbers. Britain’s Muslim population is roughly 6% — more in some cities, less nationally — but many people I meet insist it is double that, or rapidly heading toward dominance. That disconnect between perception and reality matters, because politics is now operating entirely inside those perceptions.

Layered on top of this is the symbiosis between parts of the far left and segments of the Muslim community — the so-called “red-green coalition.” Their public protests — often animated by anger at Israel, the West, and British historical symbols — have further unsettled parts of the population. What used to be fringe talk (“blood in the streets,” “civil war conditions”) is something I’m now hearing from people who are neither cranks nor extremists. They won’t write it in their newspapers, but they’ll say it over drinks.

All of this is happening at the precise moment Britain’s party system is fragmenting. The Conservatives are collapsing. Labour faces a growing threat from the Greens and ...