Reform UK
Based on Wikipedia: Reform UK
In January 2025, something extraordinary happened in British politics. Elon Musk, the world's richest man and owner of the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, publicly called for Nigel Farage to step down as leader of Reform UK. "The Reform Party needs a new leader," Musk tweeted. "Farage doesn't have what it takes."
The falling out came over Tommy Robinson, a far-right activist then sitting in jail for contempt of court. Musk had expressed support for Robinson; Farage distanced himself from those comments. Within two days, Farage was talking about "mending fences" with the billionaire, calling him a "heroic figure."
This peculiar episode captures something essential about Reform UK: a party perpetually navigating between mainstream political ambition and the gravitational pull of Britain's populist fringe. It is a party that, depending on who you ask, represents either the authentic voice of left-behind Britain or a dangerous flirtation with extremism dressed up in respectable clothing.
From Brexit Party to Reform UK
Reform UK did not spring into existence fully formed. It evolved from the Brexit Party, which itself emerged from the ashes of the United Kingdom Independence Party, commonly known as UKIP. Understanding this lineage matters, because British right-wing populism has been shape-shifting through different organizational forms for over a decade, often with the same central figure at its heart.
That figure is Nigel Farage.
In November 2018, a woman named Catherine Blaiklock, who had previously served as UKIP's economics spokesperson, formally incorporated a new political party. She announced it publicly in January 2019, with Farage's blessing. The name was blunt and descriptive: the Brexit Party. Its single purpose was to ensure Britain left the European Union.
At the time, Brexit was caught in parliamentary deadlock. The Conservative government under Theresa May had negotiated a withdrawal agreement, but Parliament kept rejecting it. The Brexit Party offered voters a way to express their frustration. In May 2019, it won the European Parliament elections in the UK, taking more seats than any other party. This was, paradoxically, a protest vote in elections for an institution Britain was trying to leave.
When Farage explained what made the Brexit Party different from UKIP, his answer was revealing. "No difference in terms of policy," he said in April 2019, "but in terms of personnel, there's a vast difference." He was criticizing UKIP's increasingly open connections to far-right figures. The Brexit Party would be, in his telling, a cleaner vehicle for the same ideas.
The Pandemic Pivot
Brexit happened. On January 31, 2020, the United Kingdom formally withdrew from the European Union. The party that existed solely to achieve that outcome suddenly needed a new reason to exist.
Then came COVID-19.
The pandemic arrived in Britain in early 2020, and the Conservative government responded with a series of national lockdowns. These lockdowns became the new cause. In November 2020, Farage and Richard Tice, then the party's chairman, announced they had applied to rename the Brexit Party to "Reform UK." The party would now campaign against lockdowns and for broader reforms to British government, including changes to the British Broadcasting Corporation and the House of Lords.
They also announced support for something called the Great Barrington Declaration. This was a controversial document, written by a small group of scientists in October 2020, that argued against lockdowns and in favor of what it called "focused protection" of vulnerable populations. Many epidemiologists criticized it as dangerous. But for Reform UK, it provided scientific cover for what was already a political instinct: opposition to government-imposed restrictions on personal freedom.
The name change became official in January 2021. Two months later, Farage stepped down as leader. Tice took over.
What Reform UK Actually Wants
Since 2022, the party has developed a broader policy platform. The core promises are: lower taxes, less immigration, abandonment of net-zero emissions targets, and deep cuts to public spending. If you have followed right-wing populist parties in other Western democracies, this package will sound familiar.
The immigration position deserves particular attention, because it connects to the party's origins in the Brexit movement. Much of the Leave campaign's appeal in 2016 rested on promises to "take back control" of Britain's borders. European Union membership meant accepting free movement of people within the bloc. Leaving the EU meant Britain could, in theory, set its own immigration policy.
But immigration to Britain did not fall after Brexit. It changed in composition. Fewer Europeans arrived; more people came from elsewhere. Net migration actually increased. Reform UK argues that mainstream politicians of both major parties have failed to deliver the immigration restrictions that Brexit voters wanted. The party promises to finish what Brexit started.
On climate policy, Reform UK positions itself against the cross-party consensus that Britain should achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. This target, enshrined in law, requires transforming how Britain generates electricity, heats homes, and moves people and goods. Critics, including Reform UK, argue that these changes impose unbearable costs on ordinary people while making little difference to a global problem driven primarily by larger economies like China and India.
The Party's Unusual Structure
For most of its existence, Reform UK was not really a political party in the traditional sense. It was a company.
Most British political parties are membership organizations. Members pay dues, attend conferences, vote on policy, and select leaders. The Labour Party works this way. So do the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. Reform UK, by contrast, was structured as a limited company with Farage as a significant shareholder. Members were "registered supporters" rather than democratic participants.
Farage defended this structure as necessary for maintaining discipline and preventing infiltration by extremists. UKIP, he argued, had been destroyed from within by people who brought toxic associations. A company structure meant the leadership could simply expel troublemakers.
In September 2024, Farage announced he would surrender his shares. Members would gain more control, including the ability to vote on a constitution and, crucially, to remove Farage himself as leader if more than half of them wrote to the party chairman requesting it. In February 2025, ownership transferred to a new entity called Reform 2025 Limited, a nonprofit company with no shareholders. Whether this represents genuine democratization or merely a restructuring that preserves leadership control remains to be seen.
Electoral Performance
For years, Reform UK and its predecessor the Brexit Party performed better in polls than at actual elections. The 2019 general election was particularly disappointing: 273 candidates, two percent of the national vote, zero seats. The mathematics of Britain's first-past-the-post electoral system punish parties whose support is spread evenly across the country rather than concentrated in particular constituencies.
The party's first Member of Parliament arrived not through winning an election but through defection. In March 2024, Lee Anderson, who had been elected as a Conservative in 2019, crossed the floor to join Reform UK. He was the first sitting MP to do so.
Then came the 2024 general election. Farage, who had stepped down as leader in 2021, returned to take charge in June, just weeks before polling day. The party won five seats in England. It was the first time Reform UK or its predecessors had elected anyone to the House of Commons.
Five seats might sound modest. But consider the context. The party also won over four million votes nationwide, roughly fourteen percent of the total. Many analysts believe Reform cost the Conservatives dozens of additional seats by splitting the right-wing vote. The party's presence helped produce Labour's landslide victory, even though Labour's own vote share was historically unimpressive.
Who Votes for Reform?
Analysis of Reform UK's support reveals a consistent demographic picture. The party draws most heavily from older voters and from people who voted Leave in the 2016 Brexit referendum. Support is relatively even across social classes, which distinguishes it from some earlier British populist movements that drew primarily from working-class communities.
More interesting is what correlates with Reform support at the constituency level. A May 2025 analysis by the Financial Times found a strong relationship between projected Reform vote share and poor social mobility. Social mobility, in this context, measures how well children from disadvantaged backgrounds do in education and early career. In places where such children struggle most, Reform does best.
These same places tend to be the ones that voted most strongly for Leave in 2016. Of the thirty constituencies with the lowest social mobility, twenty-seven voted to leave the European Union.
There is no correlation between Conservative vote share and social mobility, and only a weak positive correlation for Labour. For the Liberal Democrats, there is no relationship at all. Reform UK appears to have found a particular constituency: places where the promise of Britain—that hard work leads to a better life—feels most broken.
The Far-Right Question
Every story about Reform UK eventually arrives at the same uncomfortable question: where does right-wing populism end and the far right begin?
The party leadership draws the line clearly. Farage has consistently criticized far-right figures and movements. When UKIP began associating with extremists, he left. When parliamentary candidates expressed sympathy for supporters of Tommy Robinson who participated in August 2024's anti-immigration protests, Farage and Tice objected.
But the boundary keeps getting tested. In November 2024, reports emerged of divisions within the party over Tommy Robinson's supporters. Two parliamentary candidates had expressed some sympathy for them. The tension between appealing to voters who share Robinson's concerns about immigration and maintaining distance from his methods and associations is ongoing.
Some who have joined the party have histories that would concern mainstream politicians. The relationship between Reform UK and Britain's far right remains actively contested and unresolved—a story still being written.
The Conservative Hemorrhage
By late 2024 and into 2025, something remarkable was happening. Prominent Conservatives were defecting to Reform UK in significant numbers.
The list included Andrea Jenkyns, a former Member of Parliament known for her enthusiastic support of Boris Johnson. Lucy Allan, another former MP. Tim Montgomerie, who had founded the influential ConservativeHome website and served as an adviser to Johnson. Rael Braverman, whose wife Suella Braverman had served as Home Secretary. The actress and singer Holly Valance. Nick Candy, a billionaire property developer who had previously been a major Conservative donor.
On December 26, 2024—Boxing Day—Reform UK claimed to have overtaken the Conservatives in total membership, becoming Britain's second-largest party behind Labour. Kemi Badenoch, who had become Conservative leader after the party's election defeat, accused Reform of faking the numbers. The party invited journalists from the Financial Times, Sky News, The Spectator, and The Daily Telegraph to inspect their website's code and underlying data. Each outlet confirmed the figures were accurate.
Farage called Badenoch's allegations "disgraceful" and threatened legal action unless she apologized.
Local Victories
In May 2025, Reform UK achieved something no previous British populist party had managed. At the local elections held that month, the party won the most seats of any party nationwide. It took control of ten local councils and won two mayoralties.
The party's projected national vote share—a calculation that estimates what national support would be based on local election results—reached thirty percent. This was higher than UKIP had ever achieved. More significantly, it was the first time since these calculations began that neither the Conservative nor Labour parties received the highest vote share.
A few weeks earlier, Reform had won a parliamentary by-election in Runcorn and Helsby, gaining its fifth MP. The margin was tiny—just six votes—but the symbolism was considerable. The party could now win seats through elections, not just defections.
What Happens Next
Reform UK now has five Members of Parliament in the House of Commons, one member of the House of Lords, two members of the London Assembly, one member of the Senedd (the Welsh Parliament), one member of the Scottish Parliament, and one police and crime commissioner. It controls twelve local councils.
The party expects to do well in the 2026 Senedd election in Wales, which will use a new, more proportional voting system. It plans to stand candidates in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election. Farage has spoken of preparing for government.
Whether this trajectory continues depends on several factors. The Conservative Party's ability to recover from its 2024 defeat matters enormously. If the Conservatives remain divided and uninspiring, Reform will continue to poach their voters and their members. If Badenoch or a successor can reunify the right, Reform might be squeezed back to the margins.
The Labour government's performance matters too. If Keir Starmer's administration is perceived as failing on immigration, on the economy, on the concerns of left-behind communities, Reform's critique will resonate more powerfully.
And then there are the wild cards. Elon Musk's brief intervention in January 2025 demonstrated how quickly external events can disrupt the party's trajectory. Farage's willingness to "mend fences" just two days after being publicly attacked suggests that pragmatism, or perhaps desperation for wealthy allies, can overcome principle.
A Party of Grievance
Reform UK is, at its core, a party of grievance. It speaks to and for people who feel that mainstream politics has failed them. The specific grievances have shifted over time—European Union membership, pandemic restrictions, immigration, the cost of net-zero policies—but the underlying sentiment remains constant: ordinary people are being ignored or actively harmed by an elite consensus that does not care about them.
This grievance has deep roots. The correlation between Reform support and poor social mobility is not coincidental. In places where the social contract feels broken—where working hard and playing by the rules does not lead to a better life—voters are receptive to parties that promise to tear up the existing arrangements and start again.
Brexit was supposed to be that new start. Eight years after the referendum, many of those who voted Leave feel that the transformation they were promised never arrived. Reform UK tells them this is because the political establishment never truly committed to the project. The answer is not to accept the status quo but to push harder.
Whether this narrative leads to genuine political change or merely perpetual opposition remains the central question of British politics. Reform UK is no longer a protest movement or a single-issue party. It has elected representatives, controls councils, and claims more members than one of Britain's two historic governing parties. The question is no longer whether it will matter, but how much and for how long.