How low could Trump's approval realistically go?

I came across a new poll from POLITICO on Thursday that shares more data on Trump’s ever-declining numbers on the economy. POLITICO reports:

Almost half — 46 percent — say the cost of living in the U.S. is the worst they can ever remember it being, a view held by 37 percent of 2024 Trump voters. Americans also say that the affordability crisis is Trump’s responsibility, with 46 percent saying it is his economy now and his administration is responsible for the costs they struggle with.

And the piece includes this graphic:

Déjà vu, right?

In another piece out Thursday, Natalie Jackson, a pollster and columnist at the National Journal, writes that “some of the [Republican] party faithful are starting to defect—and it’s because of the economy.”

It may feel like people are over-covering the economy recently, but remember, this is worth paying attention to since it’s the number-one issue for anywhere between a clear plurality and a slight majority of voters (the precise number depends on how you ask the question). Affordability is also the number one issue in congressional communications today — on both sides of the aisle.

Economic malaise is a serious problem for Trump. He won in 2024 because economic anxiety conditioned lots of voters to pull the lever against the incumbent. But now, he is the target of their ire. Losing economy-focused swing voters would cause a bloodbath for Republicans in the 2026 midterms. The 2025 statewide elections and special election in Tennessee’s Seventh District on Tuesday confirm the party is in trouble.

But, in quantitative terms, how bad is this problem for Trump, really? Are we talking about Bush 2008 levels of disapproval? Worse than Trump’s first-term ratings after Jan. 6, 2021? Today’s Chart of the Week: How low could Trump’s approval go?

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Trump’s approval could fall 3 points with greater disaffection from economy-focused Republicans

The core question we are interested in is the following: What would Donald Trump’s approval rating be if current supporters abandoned him because of economic anxiety?

To start