Presidency of George W. Bush

Based on Wikipedia: Presidency of George W. Bush

A Presidency Defined by a Single Morning

On the morning of September 11, 2001, George W. Bush sat in a Florida elementary school classroom, listening to children read a story about a pet goat. Within minutes, his presidency would be utterly transformed. An aide whispered in his ear that a second plane had struck the World Trade Center. America was under attack.

Before that moment, Bush had been a relatively conventional Republican president, pushing tax cuts and education reform. After it, he became a wartime leader who would order invasions of two countries, authorize controversial surveillance programs, and reshape American foreign policy for a generation.

His approval ratings tell the story of this transformation in stark numerical terms. After the September 11 attacks, Bush received the highest approval ratings ever recorded for an American president. By the end of his tenure, amid an unpopular war and a collapsing economy, he posted some of the lowest. Few presidents have experienced such dramatic swings in public sentiment.

The Accidental President

Bush's path to the presidency was anything but smooth. In fact, he nearly didn't make it at all.

The 2000 election against Vice President Al Gore came down to a single state: Florida. By the end of election night, Bush held an extremely narrow lead—so narrow that it triggered an automatic recount under state law. What followed was weeks of legal battles, hanging chads, and constitutional crisis.

The Florida Supreme Court ordered a partial manual recount. The United States Supreme Court, in the case of Bush v. Gore, effectively ordered that recount to stop. Bush won Florida, and with it the presidency, by a margin of just 537 votes out of nearly six million cast in the state.

Here's the remarkable part: Gore actually won the national popular vote by more than half a million votes. Bush became only the fourth person in American history to win the presidency while losing the popular vote. The others were John Quincy Adams in 1824, Rutherford B. Hayes in 1876, and Benjamin Harrison in 1888. It wouldn't happen again until 2016.

This contested victory meant Bush took office with questions about his legitimacy hanging over him. His opponents never quite accepted that he had truly won. His supporters insisted the legal process had worked exactly as intended. This division would only deepen in the years to come.

The Son Who Became President

George Walker Bush was the eldest son of George Herbert Walker Bush, the forty-first president of the United States. This made him part of only the second father-son presidential pair in American history, following John Adams and John Quincy Adams.

But the younger Bush was determined to be his own man, not simply a continuation of his father's legacy. He had made his name as the governor of Texas, winning election in 1994 and reelection by a decisive margin in 1998. His Texas record—emphasizing education reform and bipartisan cooperation—became the template for his presidential campaign.

In building his presidential team, Bush assembled a curious mix of his own people and veterans of previous Republican administrations. From Texas came his trusted advisers: Karen Hughes, who managed communications; Karl Rove, the political strategist often called "Bush's brain"; and Alberto Gonzales, his legal counsel.

But the heavyweights came from his father's orbit. Dick Cheney, who had served as secretary of defense under the elder Bush, became vice president. Colin Powell, former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, became secretary of state. Condoleezza Rice, who had served on his father's National Security Council, became national security adviser.

This arrangement created an unusual dynamic. Bush himself had limited foreign policy experience. He was relying on advisers who, in some cases, had far more experience in government than he did. Cheney, in particular, would emerge as perhaps the most powerful vice president in American history—a behind-the-scenes force whose influence extended across domestic and foreign policy alike.

Before Everything Changed

For the first eight months of 2001, the Bush presidency followed a familiar Republican script.

Tax cuts came first. Bush had campaigned on the promise to return a federal budget surplus to taxpayers, and he delivered. The Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 cut taxes by one and a third trillion dollars over ten years. It reduced income tax rates, increased the child tax credit, and phased out the estate tax.

Critics warned that the cuts would turn surpluses into deficits. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill expressed concerns about the size of the cuts and their long-term fiscal impact. But Vice President Cheney took charge of writing the bill, brushing aside such worries. The administration rejected proposals for "triggers" that would have phased out the tax reductions if deficits returned.

Education reform was the other major initiative. The No Child Left Behind Act, passed with bipartisan support, represented the largest expansion of federal involvement in education in decades. It required states to test students regularly and hold schools accountable for the results. Schools that repeatedly failed to meet standards faced consequences.

The law was a genuine bipartisan achievement—Senator Ted Kennedy, the liberal lion of Massachusetts, worked closely with Bush to craft it. This kind of across-the-aisle cooperation would become increasingly rare as the presidency wore on.

The Day That Divided History

September 11, 2001, created a before and after in American life. Nearly three thousand people died when terrorists flew hijacked airplanes into the World Trade Center towers in New York, the Pentagon in Washington, and a field in Pennsylvania where passengers fought back against their hijackers.

The attacks were carried out by al-Qaeda, a jihadist terrorist organization led by Osama bin Laden and based in Afghanistan under the protection of the Taliban government. Within weeks, Bush had launched what he called a "global war on terrorism."

The invasion of Afghanistan began in October 2001. The goals were straightforward: overthrow the Taliban, destroy al-Qaeda, and capture bin Laden. The first two objectives were accomplished with surprising speed. American forces, working with Afghan allies, toppled the Taliban regime within months.

But bin Laden escaped, likely slipping across the border into Pakistan during the Battle of Tora Bora in December 2001. He would remain at large for nearly a decade, finally killed in a raid ordered by Bush's successor, Barack Obama, in 2011.

At home, the Bush administration moved quickly to prevent future attacks. Congress created the Department of Homeland Security, consolidating twenty-two federal agencies into a single department focused on protecting the American homeland. It was the largest reorganization of the federal government since the creation of the Department of Defense in 1947.

More controversially, Bush signed the USA PATRIOT Act—an acronym for "Uniting and Strengthening America by Providing Appropriate Tools Required to Intercept and Obstruct Terrorism." The law dramatically expanded the government's surveillance powers, allowing authorities to monitor communications and access personal records with reduced judicial oversight. Supporters argued these tools were essential for preventing attacks. Critics warned they undermined civil liberties that Americans had long taken for granted.

The Road to Baghdad

If Afghanistan was a direct response to September 11, Iraq was something else entirely.

Saddam Hussein had ruled Iraq with brutal efficiency since 1979. He had invaded Kuwait in 1990, prompting the first President Bush to lead an international coalition that expelled Iraqi forces but left Saddam in power. For the next decade, Saddam remained a thorn in America's side—defying weapons inspectors, allegedly harboring weapons of mass destruction, and oppressing his own people.

After September 11, the Bush administration began making the case that Saddam posed an unacceptable threat. The argument rested on two pillars: that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction, including chemical, biological, and possibly nuclear weapons; and that Saddam might share these weapons with terrorists like al-Qaeda.

In March 2003, American and British forces invaded Iraq. Baghdad fell within three weeks. Saddam went into hiding, eventually captured by American forces in December 2003. He was later tried by an Iraqi court and executed.

But the weapons of mass destruction that had justified the invasion were never found.

Nor was any operational relationship between Saddam's regime and al-Qaeda ever established. The two claims that had formed the core rationale for war turned out to be false.

The invasion had been relatively easy. The occupation proved catastrophic. American planners had not adequately prepared for what would come after Saddam's fall. Looting and chaos swept through Iraqi cities. An insurgency emerged, killing American soldiers and Iraqi civilians in growing numbers. Sectarian violence between Sunni and Shia Muslims pushed the country toward civil war.

The human and financial costs mounted. Thousands of American soldiers died. Tens of thousands of Iraqis perished. The war would ultimately cost trillions of dollars. And still the violence continued.

Reelection Despite Everything

By 2004, the Iraq War had become deeply controversial. But Bush won reelection anyway.

His opponent was Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, a decorated Vietnam War veteran who had later become a prominent critic of that war. Kerry attacked Bush's handling of Iraq but struggled to articulate a clear alternative. Bush's campaign successfully portrayed Kerry as a "flip-flopper" whose positions changed with political convenience.

The election was close—not as close as 2000, but close enough. Bush won with 286 electoral votes to Kerry's 251. This time, he also won the popular vote, the first president since his father in 1988 to receive a majority of votes cast.

Republicans also expanded their majorities in Congress. For the 108th and 109th Congresses, the party controlled the House, the Senate, and the White House—what's called a "government trifecta." Bush appeared to have a mandate for his second term agenda.

Second Term Troubles

Second terms often disappoint. Bush's was no exception.

He pushed for major reform of Social Security, the retirement program created during the New Deal. Bush proposed allowing workers to divert part of their payroll taxes into private investment accounts. The idea went nowhere. Even many Republicans were reluctant to touch the politically sensitive program that older Americans depended on.

Immigration reform met a similar fate. Bush proposed a path to legal status for undocumented immigrants already in the country. Conservative opponents denounced it as "amnesty." The effort collapsed under opposition from within his own party.

Then came Hurricane Katrina.

In August 2005, the Category 5 hurricane slammed into the Gulf Coast, devastating New Orleans and the surrounding region. The levees protecting New Orleans broke, flooding much of the city. Hundreds of thousands of people were displaced. More than 1,800 died.

The federal response was slow and inadequate. Images of desperate survivors stranded on rooftops, of bodies floating in flooded streets, of chaos at the Superdome where thousands had sought shelter—these became symbols of government failure. The Federal Emergency Management Agency, known as FEMA, seemed overwhelmed and incompetent. Its director, Michael Brown, became a national symbol of crony incompetence after Bush publicly praised him with the words "Brownie, you're doing a heck of a job."

Katrina shattered the image of Bush as a decisive leader. His approval ratings, already declining over Iraq, fell further. They would never fully recover.

Reshaping the Supreme Court

One area where Bush left an undeniable mark was the federal judiciary, particularly the Supreme Court.

When Justice Sandra Day O'Connor announced her retirement in 2005, Bush initially nominated John Roberts to replace her. But then Chief Justice William Rehnquist died, and Bush shifted Roberts to that position instead. Roberts was confirmed with broad bipartisan support, 78 senators voting in favor.

Finding a replacement for O'Connor proved more difficult. Bush first nominated Harriet Miers, his White House counsel. Miers had never served as a judge. Conservatives erupted in opposition, worried about her unproven ideology and lack of judicial experience. After Senate leaders told Bush that Miers didn't have the votes, she withdrew.

Bush then nominated Samuel Alito, a federal appeals court judge with a clearly conservative record. Democrats opposed him, but Alito was confirmed 58 to 42.

The Roberts and Alito appointments shifted the Court rightward. O'Connor had often been a swing vote, siding sometimes with liberals and sometimes with conservatives. Alito was more consistently conservative. The Roberts Court would later issue decisions striking down campaign finance regulations, expanding gun rights, and eventually—long after Bush left office—overturning Roe v. Wade.

Bush also appointed two future Supreme Court justices to lower courts: Neil Gorsuch to the Tenth Circuit Court of Appeals and Brett Kavanaugh to the D.C. Circuit. Both would later be elevated to the Supreme Court by President Donald Trump.

The Surge

By 2006, the Iraq War seemed lost. Sectarian violence had reached catastrophic levels. Dozens of bodies appeared on Baghdad's streets each morning, victims of the Sunni-Shia civil war raging through the country. Public support for the war had collapsed. Democrats won control of Congress in the midterm elections, largely on antiwar sentiment.

Many expected Bush to begin withdrawing troops. He did the opposite.

In January 2007, Bush announced a "surge" of more than twenty thousand additional troops into Iraq. The new strategy, developed by General David Petraeus, focused on protecting the Iraqi population rather than simply hunting insurgents. American soldiers would live among Iraqis, providing security around the clock.

Critics called it a desperate escalation. Even some Republicans opposed it.

But the surge worked—at least in reducing violence. By 2008, deaths from sectarian violence had dropped dramatically. Iraq remained unstable, and American troops would remain for years to come, but the country no longer seemed on the brink of complete collapse.

Whether the surge's success justified the war itself remained a matter of fierce debate. The original rationale for invasion had been proven false. Thousands had died. But by the end of Bush's presidency, the immediate crisis had eased.

The Economy: A Mixed Record

Evaluating Bush's economic record requires distinguishing between what happened and what he could control.

The numbers themselves are mixed. From 2001 to late 2008, the economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.3 percent. That was well below the 3.7 percent growth under Bill Clinton and notably weaker than the 3.3 percent average since 1953. Average hourly wages, adjusted for inflation, grew by just 1.1 percent—compared to 6.7 percent under Clinton.

On the other hand, productivity growth was strong, the best since Lyndon Johnson's presidency. Corporate profits grew by 9.4 percent annually in current dollars, the best since Ronald Reagan.

Jobs tell a complicated story too. About 4.4 million jobs were created from January 2001 to October 2008. That sounds respectable until you consider that the economy had actually lost jobs during the early years of Bush's presidency, during the recession following the dot-com bubble and September 11. Most of those job gains came in the middle years of his term.

Then came the crisis.

The Collapse

In September 2008, the American financial system came within days of complete collapse.

The crisis had been building for years. A housing bubble, inflated by subprime mortgages and exotic financial instruments, had begun deflating in 2007. By fall 2008, major financial institutions were failing. Lehman Brothers, one of the oldest and largest investment banks on Wall Street, declared bankruptcy. Insurance giant AIG required a government bailout to survive. Banks stopped lending to each other, freezing credit markets worldwide.

For a moment, it seemed the entire financial system might simply stop functioning.

Bush and his Treasury Secretary, Henry Paulson—the former head of Goldman Sachs—proposed an unprecedented intervention. The Troubled Asset Relief Program, known as TARP, gave the government authority to spend seven hundred billion dollars buying troubled assets from financial institutions and injecting capital into banks.

The program was deeply unpopular. Many Americans were furious that the same financial institutions whose reckless behavior had caused the crisis were now being rescued with taxpayer money while ordinary people lost their homes and jobs. Bush's approval rating, already low, sank further.

But TARP may have prevented something far worse. Most economists believe the program helped stabilize the financial system and prevent a complete economic collapse. The government eventually recovered most of the money it spent, and some estimates suggest it even turned a small profit.

Nevertheless, the financial crisis defined Bush's final months in office. He had entered the presidency amid a disputed election; he left it amid the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.

The Legacy Question

How should we evaluate the Bush presidency?

His supporters point to several achievements. He kept America safe after September 11; no major terrorist attack occurred on American soil during the remainder of his tenure. He appointed conservative judges who have reshaped the federal judiciary for a generation. He launched a major initiative to fight AIDS in Africa that is credited with saving millions of lives. He expanded Medicare to cover prescription drugs for seniors.

His critics have a longer list of grievances. The Iraq War was launched on false pretenses and caused immense suffering. The response to Hurricane Katrina revealed a government unprepared for disaster. The tax cuts contributed to soaring deficits. The administration's policies on interrogation and surveillance raised serious civil liberties concerns. And the financial crisis, while not entirely his fault, occurred on his watch.

Scholarly rankings have generally placed Bush among the below-average presidents, though public opinion has improved since he left office. The passage of time has softened some of the harsh judgments of his later years, as often happens with former presidents.

Perhaps the fairest assessment is that Bush was a wartime president who rose to meet one crisis—the September 11 attacks—with a unity of purpose that briefly made him the most popular president in polling history. But he launched another war that undermined that purpose, and when a different kind of crisis struck at the end, his capacity to lead had been exhausted.

He entered office in 2001 with questions about his legitimacy. He left in 2009 with his legacy an open question that historians continue to debate. His successor, Barack Obama, represented a dramatic break—the first African American president, swept into office on a wave of change that was, in part, a repudiation of the Bush years.

Bush himself retreated to his Texas ranch, painting portraits and largely staying out of politics. It was a quiet ending to a presidency that had been anything but.