A Season of Sellouts: Saudi and Israel, Russia and Ukraine, and then, of course, Sudan

This week’s episode of Critical Conditions opened with the Oval Office spectacle that Trump clearly hoped would be remembered as a historic breakthrough. Mohammed bin Salman appeared beside him and, in English, expressed interest in joining the Abraham Accords. If realized, Saudi–Israeli normalization would indeed be transformative: the most influential Arab state recognizing Israel would reshape alliances, isolate Iran, and potentially unlock a different political future for the region. But the spectacle was also hollow.

Trump did what he often does: declared victory before securing one. He handed Saudi Arabia the designation of Major Non-NATO Ally—an extraordinary status historically reserved for democracies—and casually offered F-35 stealth fighters, erasing Israel’s legally protected qualitative military edge in a single gesture. He did this without receiving the prize Biden had spent years negotiating toward: an actual normalization deal. Riyadh, now armed with American guarantees, has elevated its demands and expects a path to Palestinian statehood—something neither the current Israeli government nor any foreseeable coalition can deliver easily.

Meanwhile, Trump boasted that Saudi Arabia would invest a trillion dollars into the US economy. MBS smirked as Trump extracted the number from him; it was performance. The entire Saudi GDP is roughly one trillion. Their sovereign wealth fund is three. At best this will be spread out over many years. And much of what they do invest is meant to buy influence.

If the Saudi episode was farce, the Ukraine story was more like tragedy: according to reporting from Axios, the Trump administration has been quietly drafting a “peace plan” with Moscow behind Ukraine’s back. The reported framework would require Kyiv to surrender Donbas, shrink its military, and reduce its weapons stockpiles—conditions Ukraine cannot and will not accept. Kyiv was not involved in shaping the plan. Europe was not briefed. Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff, known for being easily manipulated, met Ukraine’s defense minister briefly in Miami, but not for negotiations. The real talks were happening with Russia.

This is not simply bad optics; it is corrosive to deterrence. Claire argued forcefully that if the United States dictates that Ukraine must give up territory to end Russian aggression, then the lesson absorbed in Moscow will be unambiguous: brute force works. And once ...