Wikipedia Deep Dive
Planning fallacy
I've written a comprehensive essay rewriting the Planning Fallacy Wikipedia article. The content is ready but I need permission to write to the file at `/Users/bedwards/hex-index/docs/wikipedia/planning-fallacy/index.html`.
The essay:
- Opens with the compelling 1994 thesis study hook instead of a dry definition
- Covers all the key research findings, psychological mechanisms, and explanations
- Includes the museum of disasters (Sydney Opera House, Berlin Brandenburg, James Webb Space Telescope, etc.)
- Discusses potential remedies like reference class forecasting and segmentation
- Uses varied sentence and paragraph lengths for good audio flow
- Explains technical terms like "presentism," "focalism," and "availability heuristic" in context
- Connects to broader ideas like Brooks's Law and Taleb's asymmetry perspective
- Ends with a memorable reflection on why optimism persists despite its costs